Origin and composition of settling iron aggregates in oligotrophic Sombre Lake, Signy Island, Antarctica

first_imgSediment traps were deployed in an oligotrophic, seasonally anoxic maritime Antarctic lake for 15 months. Immediately after the onset of the inflow in spring many iron oxyhydroxide aggregates were collected in the traps. Image analysis, scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray analysis were used to examine the aggregates. The aggregates consisted of primary particles that persisted in the aggregates. The mean diameter of the aggregates was constant with depth. The aggregates consisted predominantly of iron, phosphorus and oxygen but calcium was also an important constituent. Significant concentrations of manganese and sodium were also detected. The molar ratio Fe:P remained constant at 4:1 as did the ratio Fe:Ca at 52:1. The concentration of iron, phosphorus and calcium in the aggregates increased with depth, whilst the concentration of manganese decreased with depth in parallel with a gradient of increasing anoxia. The stable water column formed under ice cover and the temporal and spatial data provide evidence that the Fe:P and Fe:Ca ratios are constant and characteristic of the aggregates, whilst the overall composition of the aggregates is more dynamic and dependant on redox conditions and water chemistry.last_img read more

Kobe Bryant Inducted into Basketball Hall of Fame

first_imgKobe Bryant will be posthumously inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.The five-time NBA champion died, aged 41, in a helicopter crash in January alongside his 13-year-old daughter Gianna and seven others.Los Angeles Lakers great Bryant retired in 2016; he was the NBA Most Valuable Player in 2008, was Finals MVP twice and earned 18 All-Star selections. He was in the United States team that won Olympic gold in 2008 and 2012.NBA commissioner Adam Silver said Bryant’s death was “unspeakable” and the league was keen to “honour” him.“Kobe Bryant is synonymous with NBA All-Star and embodies the spirit of this global celebration of our game,” Silver said.“He always relished the opportunity to compete with the best of the best and perform at the highest level for millions of fans around the world.”Tim Duncan, a five-time NBA champion with the San Antonio Spurs, and Kevin Garnett, who helped the Boston Celtics win the championship in 2008, were also inducted into the Hall of Fame.The Hall of Fame is named after Dr James Naismith,the Canadian physician who invented basketballShare this:FacebookRedditTwitterPrintPinterestEmailWhatsAppSkypeLinkedInTumblrPocketTelegramlast_img read more

SU ice hockey redeems itself after loss to Providence

first_img Comments Julie Rising poked in a rebound from her stomach to start the scoring for Syracuse. The goal set the tone for an aggressive SU team in a dominant performance Saturday against Connecticut. The performance was quite a turnaround from the night before. The Orange came out with intensity Saturday after a lackluster showing Friday against Providence. SU came out flat and appeared to be going through the motions in a 4-1 loss in which the Friars controlled the puck for the majority of the game. One night later, the Orange redeemed itself with a 7-1 victory over the Huskies. Head coach Paul Flanagan stressed the importance of being mentally prepared to play every game after the loss. Rising, the senior captain who scored two goals over the weekend, was also disappointed with the team’s effort. ‘I think we kind of realized we need to put a lot more emotion in it and really be aggressive,’ she said Friday. ‘We kind of came out a little weak, and I think if we can play a whole 60 minutes really strong, we should be able to beat a team like that.’AdvertisementThis is placeholder text The Orange took the message to heart. SU was relentless in the blowout victory over the Huskies. Four second-period goals broke the game wide open. The offensive explosion was the result of a team constantly on the attack as the Orange (2-2-1) outshot UConn (1-4-0), 38-19. The onslaught of chances made for a memorable night for one SU player. Sophomore Isabel Menard scored the first hat trick in Syracuse history. She recorded her first goal off a backhanded shot from 15 feet out, which snuck by a screened goalie. Menard found the back of the net again on a wraparound shot later in the period. She completed the hat trick in the third after receiving a pass from junior Lisa Mullan. After experimenting with Menard on defense this week, Flanagan decided to move her back to her more natural position on offense. The move paid off as Menard led the Orange to a big win. It wasn’t the only lineup change Flanagan made. The head coach mixed it up to keep his team hungry after Friday’s loss. ‘We made some changes in the lineup, and sometimes just doing that reestablishes focus. Kids start thinking, ‘Boy, I got to work for my spot,” he said. The team played hard from start to finish. The aggressive play produced a balanced effort that saw 12 players tally points. Freshman Margot Scharfe scored the first goal of her career to extend the Orange lead to 3-1, just after UConn cut into the lead with a power-play goal. It sparked a flurry of offense that gave the Orange a comfortable 5-1 advantage heading into the final period. Freshman Sadie St. Germain and junior defender Taylor Metcalfe each notched their first career goals in the contest. The seven-goal outburst came in support of freshman goaltender Jenesica Drinkwater for her first career win. She saved 18 shots in her second start. Fellow freshman Kallie Billadeau blocked 25 shots in goal for SU Friday. The Orange is still searching for its first winning streak early in the season. Flanagan said the team can’t get too high or too low with a win or a loss. The energy level needs to be there every game. ‘We have to be more consistent, you just can’t be in the ebb and flow of some of these games,’ Flanagan said. ‘We got to stay away from that, we got to look for more consistency from our team and individuals.’ [email protected] Published on October 17, 2010 at 12:00 pm Contact Ryne: [email protected]center_img Facebook Twitter Google+last_img read more

Ukrainians charged for assaulting Guyanese miners

first_imgThe two Ukrainian security guards who were seen assaulting Guyanese miners in a video that went viral are expected to be arraigned for several criminal charges on Tuesday.The men were arrested days after the incident, and are expected to make their appearance at the Georgetown Magistrates’ Courts after the Police sought legal advice from the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP).According to information received, 38-year-old Vitaly Paraschuck has been slapped with two counts of threatening behaviour and assault causing actual bodily harm committed on Guyanese miner Charles Clarke. And 33-year-old Maksym Furtak has been charged with threatening behaviour committed on Rudolph Deane.In addition, the Ukrainians and Charles Clarke will be charged separately for contravention of the Private Security Services Act of 2009, for failing to wear theirThe two Ukrainians during the assault on Guyanese minersprescribed uniforms.The men have each been released on $50,000 station bail, and have been ordered to lodge their travel documents at Police Headquarters, Eve Leary.It has been reported that the assault on the two miners took place at the Quartzstone River in Region Seven (Cuyuni-Mazaruni) two weeks ago, but an official report was made to the Police only last week.Upon receiving this report, one of the aggrieved miners was referred to the Georgetown Public Hospital, where he was examined and treated by a doctor. He was discharged, and would have led a team of Police ranks to the area, resulting in the two Russian guards being arrested.Upon their arrest, they were informed that at the time of the incident, they were not attired in the uniform prescribed by their employer and approved by the Guyana Police Force.Following the incident, Natural Resources Minister Raphael Trotman has since noted his concern with regards the content of the video.“I am concerned about foreigners having weapons; licensed weapons. I am told that precepts were issued. A precept is really a kind of permission given by the Police Force to persons to act as security guards and also to carry firearm licences. I am concerned about that, and the number of persons who may have them,” Trotman disclosed.Trotman explained that the interior is known to be “Wild West”, and so the number of guns present there would have a direct bearing on the levels of crime and violence in the area.“It also tells us that people expect or need a greater Police presence, and so I believe Government is looking at that. We recently launched the Corps of Wardens, and that Corps of Wardens will come alongside the Police Force, when necessary, to assist not just with law and order, but of course to ensure that the laws (such as) mining laws, forest laws, wildlife protection laws etcetera, are respected,” the minister added.Also weighing in on the issue, the Guyana Trades Union Congress has called on the Government to send a strong message regarding its responsibility and commitment to respecting and defending the sovereignty of Guyana, its people and the Rule of Law.It was initially reported that the men were Russians, but Police confirmed on Monday that the mean are Ukrainians.last_img read more

Physicist Acknowledges Positive Role of Religion in Science

first_img(Visited 450 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0 How can science reject religion, when many of the founding fathers of science were men of strong Biblical faith?In a headline unusual for The Conversation, which often acts as a podium for atheists, Tom McLeish says, “Religion isn’t the enemy of science: it’s been inspiring scientists for centuries.”  His opening sentences summarizes the angle he takes:Take notice of any debate in the media and you’ll see that science and religion are, and always were, at loggerheads. Science is about evidence-based fact, religion is about faith-based belief.But repeating statements endlessly in the media doesn’t make them true. The actual entanglements of religious tradition and the development of science are far more interesting than the superficial conflict common today – and far more important. And rethinking how we view the relationship between science and religion could help give scientific thinking the wider public support it needs.McLeish, a Professor of Natural Philosophy in the Department of Physics at the University of York, specializes in soft matter, rheology and biological physics, his author profile says. He works as a theoretician, but keeps in close touch with experimentalists. And he knows something about the history of science, an expertise often lacking in today’s Big Science communities. Many assume, for instance, medieval scientists blindly followed Aristotle, but McLeish knows the history is more nuanced than the picture of 17th century scientific giants finally casting off old myths of darkness and seeing the light for the first time.When Aristotle was reintroduced to Europe in the 12th century, his scientific work had a great influence on medieval scholars, who were invariably thinkers within a church, synagogue or mosque. A key example is the 13th-century Oxford theologian and later Bishop of Lincoln, Robert Grosseteste, who was also a pioneering early scientist. He presented a vision for how we might obtain new knowledge of the universe, the dawning of the first notions of experiment, and even a “big bang” theory of the cosmos and a concept of multiple universes.Art by J. Beverly Greene commissioned specifically for CEH. All rights reserved.The views of Grosseteste are not exactly like those of modern secular cosmologists, to be sure. Most importantly, he saw the investigation of nature as an act of worship that glorifies God. Like Roger Bacon, his pupil, Grosseteste denounced magic, superstition and irrationality. To these scholars, nature reflected the rationality, orderliness and beauty of their Creator. Their views influenced many subsequent natural philosophers.Yet underneath Grosseteste’s work lies a much deeper and developing philosophy of nature. In a commentary on Aristotle’s Posteria Analytics, he describes a uniquely human propensity he calls (in Latin) “sollertia”. By this he means a sort of intense and perceptive ability to look beyond the surface of the material world into its inner structure.This is remarkably similar to our approach to science today. Isaac Newton described his science as “seeing further than others”. For Grosseteste, our sollertia comes in turn from being created in the image of God. It is a theologically motivated task that contributes to the fulfilment of being human.McLeish continues with other Bible-believing scientists which we describe in our biographies at this site.Francis Bacon (1561-1626)Robert Boyle (1627-1691)Isaac Newton (1642-1727)These and others “saw their task as working with God’s gifts of senses and minds to recover a lost knowledge of nature.” McLeish takes this spirit all the way back to the Biblical Book of Job, especially chapters 38-41, in which God quizzes Job on a list of scientific questions he knows Job cannot answer. Calling the book of Job a “foundation pillar for modern philosophy” on par with Plato. McLeish sees parallels with the kinds of questions scientists address today:This is because Job deals head-on with the problem of an apparently chaotic and fitful world, alien to the human predicament and unmoved in the face of suffering. And this, [Susan] Neiman claims, is the starting point for philosophy.It might also be the starting point for science, for Job also contains at its pivotal point the most profound nature poem of all ancient writings. Its verse form of questions is also striking to scientists from all ages, who know that asking the right creative questions – rather than always having the correct answer – is what unlocks progress.In all, the book contains as many as 160 questions from the fields we now know as meteorology, astronomy, geology and zoology. The content of this timeless text has clearly steered the story of science for centuries.McLeish hopes that “faith communities” will embrace this history. He thinks this will help them be “hugely in support of science,” but he fails to expect a reciprocal action on the part of scientists. “By embracing and supporting science, in turn, religious communities can contribute important perspectives on how we use it in our global future.”This is a welcome change from the usual creation-bashing by atheists on The Conversation, but I wish McLeish would have stated the need for scientists to repent and recognize their debt to the Bible. Instead, these kinds of articles always view the motion in one direction: “faith communities” need to embrace science—or, more cynically, the People of Faith (whatever that is supposed to mean) need to knuckle under to the People of Froth. Lawrence Principe at Johns Hopkins commits this lopsided error in his otherwise interesting Teaching Company course on science and religion. A large part of the divide today comes from arrogant scientists pridefully looking down their snooty little Yoda noses at anyone who doubts their idol, King Charles (see 26-Jan-2018). From my experience that is a far bigger problem than “people of faith” refusing to embrace science.I would also add Solomon to Job as a science promoter. Solomon undertook massive projects to study birds, plants, and other phenomena (I Kings 4:29-34). Although as an old man he lumped research, pleasure and writing books as “chasing after wind,” his zeal at investigation of nature, applying his God-given wisdom, clearly brought him pleasure and satisfaction for many years. His conclusion, “Fear God, and keep His commandments, for this is the whole duty of man” (Ecclesiastes 12), does not negate the value of science, because he also said, “Remember your Creator in the days of your youth.” Other Bible writers advocated study of God’s works as a way of fearing God and keeping His commandments. Psalm 111, for instance, includes research as an element of worship:Praise the Lord! I will give thanks to the Lord with all my heart, in the company of the upright and in the assembly.Great are the works of the Lord; they are studied by all who delight in them.Splendid and majestic is His work, and His righteousness endures forever.He has made His wonders to be remembered; the Lord is gracious and compassionate.He has given food to those who fear Him; He will remember His covenant forever.He has made known to His people the power of His works, in giving them the heritage of the nations.last_img read more

Glass House

first_imgCBI’s Dark Horse Rides AgainThe CBI is to get a new director by the end of November when present incumbent and 10 Janpath nominee Ashwini Kumar retires. There are three strong contenders. S.K. Raut, DG Intelligence (Maharashtra cadre), Ranjit Sinha, DG, RPF, and CBI insider A.P. Singh, Special Director. But never forget the,CBI’s Dark Horse Rides AgainThe CBI is to get a new director by the end of November when present incumbent and 10 Janpath nominee Ashwini Kumar retires. There are three strong contenders. S.K. Raut, DG Intelligence (Maharashtra cadre), Ranjit Sinha, DG, RPF, and CBI insider A.P. Singh, Special Director. But never forget the dark horse. Ashwini was a last-minute choice after M.L. Sharma was thought of as certain.This time, the dark horse is a lady officer from the south who has a good equation with Number 10. Punters, get ready.IAS DespairFinance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has begun to induct domain specialists, even if that means irking his ias babus. Venu Rajamony, an ifs officer who has done stints in Washington and Dubai, has been given the coveted post of joint secretary, multilateral institutions, in the Department of Economic Affairs. Rajamony replaces Anup Pujari, an officer from the Indian Administrative Service. Rajamony, who was handling energy diplomacy in the foreign office, has the relevant experience for a job that deals with negotiating loans from multilateral institutions like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. But of course, this does not calm the wounded egos of IAS babus, who see lots of foreign travel disappearing from their custody with this post. by Saurabh ShuklaA Rosaiah By Another NameThe star of the Commonwealth Games opening ceremony was not the Prince of Wales, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, upa Chairperson Sonia Gandhi or Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit. It was Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Konijeti Rosaiah. His face constantly kept popping up in the CWG coverage, interrupting the visuals on the local Doordarshan channel, advertising his government’s yojanas like Indiramma Housing Project, Rajiv Aarogyasri and Women’s Empowerment, forcing viewers to reach for their remotes. If any politician has found a better way of promoting himself, do let us know. Meanwhile bete noire Jagan Reddy’s walkathon and other activities in Andhra Pradesh are being projected endlessly on the Sakshi channel that he owns.advertisementPostscript: Media and pickle baron Ramoji Rao is pissed off with old friend Chandrababu Naidu. Is it because of the TDP’s massive ad campaigns in Eenadu’s rival paper Andhra Jyothi?Kalmadi Can’t Stomach It!India’s latest hate figure Suresh Kalmadi is traumatised by the booing he got during the CWG kickoff. He should’ve got used to the idea. But it was only a follow-up. Last Saturday at 8.30 p.m. when Kalmadi and two friends walked into the Taman Gang restaurant in the DLF Promenade Mall, Vasant Kunj, Delhi, a group of young men at a nearby table walked up to his table and surrounded him. They accused him of being a cheat, dining on stolen taxpayer money and asked him to get out. A frightened Kalmadi (out of rage or fear, we don’t know) summoned his security officer inside. At this, all the diners surrounded him, saying, “You are corrupt and now you want us to shut up.” Kalmadi left his meal unfinished. Taman Gang refuses to tell us whether he paid the bill.Who is Behenji Afraid of?What is Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati afraid of? She prefers to be surrounded only by babus and policemen these days. Even BSP workers have no entry into her space. She leaves her house through the back door and gets into the private elevator which deposits her directly at the doorstep of her much talked about ‘pancham tal’ office doorstep in the Lucknow Secretariat. The reason? The state police chanced upon documents planning an attempt on her life during a sweep-and-comb operation in Allahabad district which lasted two months.No Thought for FoodIt looks like some minority leaders close to L.K. Advani don’t like BJP Chief Nitin Gadkari’s biryani. Both Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi and Shahnawaz Hussain bunked Gadkari’s iftar party, protesting he was ignoring them. The iftar was held at the BJP’s Ashoka Road office, allegedly with the help of a media baron who is also a doctor and an rss worker. Hussain texted Gadkari that he is giving the kebabs and korma a miss while Naqvi sulked inside the office, pretending to be busy. No food for thought?The Chief Minister’s WifeMadhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is travelling so much that wife Sadhana Singh, according to bureaucrats who refuse to be named, clears all files on mine projects, construction work, road repair, purchases of vehicles and many others. She investigates, certifies and, when necessary, even puts decisions on hold for her better half to return. Office is where the heart is?advertisementFancy FlightsThe Government has discreetly warned its ministers against using private aircraft belonging to industrial houses for personal visits. An aircraft is the coolest way to a mantri’s heart for an industrialist with a file to clean. Recently, a powerful minister from Maharashtra took off to Johannesburg, South Africa, on a Mumbai industrialist’s private jet to catch a sporting event.Postscript: The BJP leaders are no exception. Top leaders, including Rajnath Singh, flew to attend Arjun Munda’s swearing-in ceremony at Ranchi in another Mumbai industrialist’s fancy airplane.SMS of the WeekMahatma Gandhi’s last words: “Hey Ram.” Ricky Ponting’s last words: “Hey Laxman.”last_img read more

Analysis: Of course Serena Williams unsatisfied by Paris run

first_img“When you play Serena, you’ve got to control all the points, you’ve got to dictate, because she’s going to take control of the points,” Kenin said. “She’s the best of the best.”This was Williams’ earliest Grand Slam loss since 2014, and her performance was as shaky as can be. She lost eight of the initial 10 games, ended up with twice as many unforced errors as Kenin and often was left shaking her head or muttering to herself or gesticulating in despair after dropping a point.Since twisting her ankle along the way to blowing four match points in the Australian Open quarterfinals, Williams had played only four matches in 2019, going 2-2.She pulled out of Indian Wells because she was sick, then the Miami Open and the Italian Open because of her knee.“She had such a short period of time to prepare,” Mouratoglou said after the loss to Kenin. “All I know is, she was not ready and it was obvious, I think. … She was fighting, but she’s not prepared enough to win those matches.”Williams agreed with that assessment.“I’m just pretty far away, but … the optimistic part is I haven’t been able to be on the court as much as I would have,” she said. “That’s OK. At least I can start trying to put the time in now.”To that end, Williams did not rule out entering a grass-court tuneup tournament ahead of the next Grand Slam tournament on the calendar, Wimbledon.She hasn’t done that since 2011.“I’m definitely feeling short on matches, and just getting in the swing of things. I don’t really like playing out points when I practice,” she said. “I have some time on my hands, so maybe I’ll jump in and get a wild card on one of these grass-court events and see what happens.” Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Serena Williams of the U.S. reacts after missing a shot against Sofia Kenin of the U.S. during their third round match of the French Open tennis tournament at the Roland Garros stadium in Paris, Saturday, June 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)PARIS — Serena Williams hadn’t played much all year. Hadn’t practiced much, either. She dealt with an injured ankle in January, a viral illness in March, then a bad left knee in March, April and May.She wasn’t sure whether it even made sense to show up for the French Open at all.ADVERTISEMENT But here’s the thing: Williams needs to be closer to her highest level than she was in Paris if she is going to do what she wants to do, which is raise her Grand Slam trophy count. Right now she’s at 23, more than anyone in the professional era. In the history of tennis, only Margaret Court has more, with 24, some won against amateur competition.On Sunday, Williams already was looking ahead, writing on Instagram: “Yesterday was not my day. But it’s about getting up time and time again after you fall. Here’s to a multitude of tomorrows.”It’s not as if Williams can’t still summon the elite strokes and strategy necessary to thrive. She demonstrated that by getting to the finals at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last year, when she returned to the tour following the September 2017 birth of her daughter.Williams, though, is no longer at the stage of her career, or perhaps an age, where she can get by purely on her considerable will or muscle memory or champion’s aura.Especially when facing gutsy opponents like the 35th-ranked Kenin.ADVERTISEMENT As usual, all eyes will be on Williams when play starts at the All England Club on July 1.“I want her to be ready,” Mouratoglou said. “Whatever we need to do we will do.”Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next View comments PDEA chief backs Robredo in revealing ‘discoveries’ on drug war Two-day strike in Bicol fails to cripple transport Angkas adds new safety measures for six-month pilot run PLAY LIST 02:17Angkas adds new safety measures for six-month pilot run01:10Angkas re-training 15,000 drivers, eyes pilot run by end of June00:35Tennis legend Moya marvels at Manila crowd02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes02:49World-class track facilities installed at NCC for SEA Games02:11Trump awards medals to Jon Voight, Alison Krauss Catholic schools seek legislated pay hike, too Neymar denies rape allegations So, a reporter wanted to know, given all of that, would the 37-year-old Williams have been satisfied ahead of time if someone had told her she would wind up making it to the third round?Hahahahahaha. Are you kidding? This is Williams we’re talking about here, as talented and competitive an athlete as there is.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingSPORTSPalace wants Cayetano’s PHISGOC Foundation probed over corruption chargesSPORTSSingapore latest to raise issue on SEA Games food, logistics“I would have thought they were lying, because I wouldn’t expect to have gotten only to the third round,” came the reply Saturday evening, after Williams was beaten 6-2, 7-5 in that round by 20-year-old American Sofia Kenin. “So I would have been like, ‘That’s not true.’”Here is the way Williams’ coach, Patrick Mouratoglou, summed up her mindset: “She doesn’t come here to do second round, third round, quarters or semis. She comes to win.” DA eyes importing ‘galunggong’ anew LATEST STORIES ‘Rebel attack’ no cause for concern-PNP, AFP Private companies step in to help SEA Games hosting MOST READ Ethel Booba twits Mocha over 2 toilets in one cubicle at SEA Games venue Cayetano: Senate, Drilon to be blamed for SEA Games messlast_img read more

How We Calculate NBA Elo Ratings

180067-15All-time great Baltimore Bullets–19471419 160051-31Playoff bound 150041-41Average Anderson Packers–19491562 ELOEQUIVALENT RECORDTEAM DESCRIPTION 140031-51In the lottery 170060-22Title contender Denver Nuggets–19491295 There are just a few NBA-specific parameters to set, which we’ll describe below.The K-factorElo’s K-factor determines how quickly the rating reacts to new game results. It should be set so as to efficiently account for new data but not overreact to it. (In a more technical sense, the goal is to minimize autocorrelation.) If K is set too high, the ratings will jump around too much; if it’s set too low, Elo will take too long to recognize important changes in team quality.We found the optimal K for the NBA to be 20. This is higher than we expected; it’s in the same range as the K used for NFL and international soccer Elo ratings even though the NBA plays far more games than those sports. It’s much higher than the optimal K for baseball. It implies that you ought to give relatively high weight to an NBA team’s recent performance.One way to interpret this is that NBA data is subject to relatively little randomness. This makes it different from sports like baseball and hockey, whose game-by-game results are pretty noisy; in those sports, your default assumption should be that a winning or losing streak is mostly luck. That isn’t so true for basketball. Streaks may reflect true, if perhaps temporary, changes in team quality. When the Atlanta Hawks went on a 19-game winning streak this season, for instance, they were undoubtedly getting a little lucky, but they were probably tougher to beat than at other points in the season.There are still some cases in which Elo seems too slow to catch up to reality, like when Michael Jordan left the Bulls or LeBron James left the Cavs. But remember: Elo is only looking at game scores and not the composition of the roster. If that’s all the information you have, setting Elo to react more quickly to these cases would make it overreact to others. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Elo rating never dipped below 1508 this year despite its 3-12 start, for instance, and that proved to be prudent since the team went 42-25 the rest of the way and ended the year with an Elo rating of 1583.Home-Court AdvantageHome-court advantage is set as equivalent to 100 Elo rating points. One hundred Elo points is equivalent to about 3.5 NBA points,1As for our NFL Elo ratings, it’s possible to translate NBA Elo ratings into point spreads. Here’s the formula: Take the difference of the two teams’ Elo ratings, add 100 points for the home team and then divide by 28. That gives you a projected margin of victory for the game. For instance, in Game 1 of the 2013-14 NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs had a 92-point Elo advantage over the Miami Heat, as well as home court, for an overall advantage of 192 Elo points. Dividing that by 28 would make San Antonio roughly 7-point favorites in the game. so that’s like saying the home team would be favored by 3 or 4 points if the teams were otherwise evenly matched.In practice, the magnitude of home-court advantage has waxed and waned over the NBA’s history. Home teams won by an average of 5.8 points in the 1987-88 regular season, for instance, but by just 2.4 points in the past season. And some teams (especially those like Denver and Utah that play at high altitudes) have historically had slightly larger home-court advantages.Still, the spirit of the Elo system is to keep things simple. We experimented with a dynamic home-court advantage rating that changes over time, but we found that it made almost no difference to the overall ratings, partly because each NBA team plays about half its games at home and half on the road. So we’re using the constant 100-point home-court advantage instead.Margin of VictoryElo strikes a nice balance between ratings systems that account for margin of victory and those that don’t. While teams always gain Elo points after wins and lose Elo points after losses, they gain or lose more with larger margins of victory.This works by assigning a multiplier to each game based on the final score and dividing it by a team’s projected margin of victory conditional upon having won the game. For instance, the Warriors’ 4-point margin over the Rockets in Game 1 of this year’s Western Conference finals was lower than Elo would expect for a Warriors win. So the Warriors gain Elo points, but not as many as if they’d won by a larger margin. The formula accounts for diminishing returns; going from a 5-point win to a 10-point win matters more than going from a 25-point win to a 30-point win. For the exact formula, see the footnotes.2The margin of victory multiplier is calculated as follows.Take a team’s margin of victory, add 3 points and then take the result to the power of 0.8.Divide the result by the following formula: 7.5+.006*(elo_diff), where elo_diff represents the Elo rating difference between the teams, accounting for home-court advantage. Elo_diff should be negative in games won by the underdog.For instance, in Game 1 of the Warriors-Rockets series, the Warriors entered the game with a an Elo rating 118 points higher than the Rockets’ and had home-court advantage, for an elo_diff of +218. They wound up winning the game by 4 points. Thus, their margin of victory multiplier is calculated as follows:What if the Rockets had won by 4 points instead? Since they were underdogs, they’d get a larger multiplier:While this formula may seem clunky, it accounts for the fact that favorites tend to win games by larger margins than they lose them. Failing to correct for this will introduce autocorrelation into the system and make the ratings less stable. See here for further discussion.Year-to-Year Carry-OverInstead of resetting each team’s rating when a new season begins, Elo carries over a portion of a team’s rating from one season to the next. In our NFL Elo ratings, teams retain two-thirds of their rating from the end of the previous season. In our NBA ratings, by contrast, they keep three-quarters of it. The higher fraction reflects the fact that NBA teams are more consistent from year to year than NFL squads.For example, the Miami Heat ended the 2012-13 NBA season with an Elo rating of 1754. The team’s Elo rating for the start of the 2013-14 season is calculated as follows:(.75 * 1754) + (.25 * 1505) = 1692Detail-oriented readers may see something that seems amiss here. Each team’s Elo rating is reverted to the mean, and — as we’ve said — the long-term mean Elo rating is 1500. So why does a slightly different number, 1505, appear in the formula?Expansion, Contraction and MergersThe reason has to do with the way we handle expansion teams. In principle, the implementation of this is pretty simple. Each franchise begins with an Elo rating of 1300 in its inaugural professional season. The reason we revert to a mean of 1505 rather than 1500 is that there are liable to be a couple of relatively recent expansion teams in the league at any given time. Giving established teams a rating very slightly higher than 1500 counteracts the expansion teams and keeps the league average Elo close to 1500 over the long run.But the league average Elo rating will be slightly different from 1500 in any given season, depending on how recently the league has expanded. It was 1504.5 during the 2014-15 NBA season, for instance, slightly higher than the long-term average because the NBA hasn’t expanded much recently.The league average tended to fluctuate more in the early years of the NBA because of constant expansion, contraction and mergers with other leagues. (We’ve learned way more than we wanted to know about the early history of American professional basketball, like that you could have once watched a game between teams named the Indianapolis Kautskys and the Akron Firestone Non-Skids.) The league average reached a peak of 1534.5 in 1954-55 after a number of losing teams had disbanded. By contrast, it was just 1440.5 in the 1970-71 season after the NBA expanded rapidly.There’s one other tricky part. We said a team begins with a rating of 1300 in its first professional season. That doesn’t mean its first NBA season. Instead, teams get credit for their performance in predecessor leagues that merged with the NBA:The Basketball Association of America (BAA), which began play in 1946-47, is usually considered the official predecessor of the NBA. So we track all BAA teams’ Elo ratings explicitly, starting them at 1300 in 1946-47.We also track American Basketball Association (ABA) Elo ratings explicitly — yes, that includes The Floridians! — starting them at a rating of 1300 in the ABA’s inaugural season of 1967-68. The year-end adjustment takes care of the rest, allowing the ABA’s performance to gradually improve over time. The four ABA teams that joined the NBA in 1976-77 simply carry over their ratings from ABA. Because these teams — the Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, Denver Nuggets and New York Nets — had been among the more successful ABA franchises, Elo ratings imply that the merger with the ABA did not weaken the NBA much. The four ABA imports averaged a respectable 40-42 record in their first three NBA seasons, in fact.The National Basketball League (NBL) was a competing professional basketball league that began play in 1937-38 and included colorfully named franchises like the Non-Skids. It merged into the BAA in advance of the 1949-50 season, at which point the combined league was renamed the NBA. In fact, most of the better franchises in the early days of the NBA originated in the NBL rather than the BAA, including the Minneapolis Lakers, Rochester Royals and Fort Wayne Pistons. While we could not track down game-by-game results for the NBL, we inferred Elo ratings for NBL teams based on the season standings and playoff results, and these ratings carry over when teams enter the NBA. For instance, the Syracuse Nationals (now the Philadelphia 76ers) begin with a rating of 1458 in their first NBA season in 1949-50.Finally, one early NBA team, the Baltimore Bullets, originated in a third early league, the American Basketball League (ABL). Confusingly, that original version of the Baltimore Bullets bears no relationship with the team that would later play as the Baltimore Bullets from 1963 to 1973 (and which is now known as the Washington Wizards). However, Elo gives the original Baltimore Bullets credit for the seasons they played in the ABL.3Since data on the ABL is very hard to come by, the Bullets’ initial rating is simply calculated by starting them with a rating of 1300 and then reverting them toward the mean of 1505 for each season they played in that league. You can find the starting Elo ratings for the Bullets and NBL teams below: Waterloo Hawks–19491382 Fort Wayne PistonsDetroit Pistons19481495 Teams retain their prior Elo ratings when they change cities or nicknames. This includes the teams now known as the New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets. The NBA, in a bit of revisionist history, considers the current Charlotte Hornets (who were known as the Charlotte Bobcats until this season) to “own” the statistics of the team that played as the Charlotte Hornets from 1988-89 through 2001-02, before they moved to New Orleans. We instead link those Hornets seasons with the New Orleans Hornets, who are now the New Orleans Pelicans. Tri-Cities BlackhawksAtlanta Hawks19491430 Indianapolis Jets–19481366 Rochester RoyalsSacramento Kings19481535 Minneapolis LakersLos Angeles Lakers19481527 Hopefully if you’re reading this, you’ve had a chance to explore our new interactive graphic, “The Complete History Of The NBA,” which tracks each NBA and ABA franchise’s performance through every game of its history.So now for the exciting part: 2,000 words about autocorrelation and the Akron Firestone Non-Skids.Actually, this won’t be too bad because Elo is a pretty simple formula. The guts of the system are the same as we used for the NFL and which other researchers have applied to competitions ranging from chess to soccer. For those new to Elo, here are its essential features:The ratings depend only on the final score of each game and where it was played (home-court advantage). They include both regular-season and playoff games. The principal source for game-by-game scores is Basketball-Reference.com.Teams always gain Elo points after winning games and lose ground after losing them. They gain more points for upset wins and for winning by wider margins.The system is zero-sum. When the Denver Nuggets gained 30 Elo points by upsetting the No. 1 seed Seattle SuperSonics in the first round of the 1994 NBA playoffs, the Sonics lost 30 points.Ratings are established on a game-by-game rather than a season-by-season basis. So you can see changes in a team’s “form” over the course of the year: The Toronto Raptors had a much higher rating early in the 2014-15 season than at the end of it, while the reverse has been true for the Cleveland Cavaliers.The long-term average Elo rating is 1500, although it can vary slightly in any particular year based on how recently the league has expanded (more about that below). More than 90 percent of team ratings are between 1300 (pretty awful) and 1700 (really good), but historically great or truly execrable teams can fall outside that range: 130022-60LOL Sheboygan Red Skins–19491405 120015-67Historically awful NBL/ABL TEAMCURRENT FRANCHISEFIRST YEAR IN NBA/BAASTARTING ELO Syracuse NationalsPhiladelphia 76ers19491458 read more